Analysis of simulated long - term ecosystem dynamics using visual recurrence analysis by Lael Parrott

An ecosystem is a prototypical complex system, exhibiting a self-organised temporal dynamics, the characterisation and description of which is riddled with challenges. In this study, simulated ecosystems in the multi-species model WIST (Weather-driven, Individual-based, Spatially explicit, Terrestrial ecosystem model) are used as surrogates with which to explore and characterise the long-term dynamics of ecosystems subject to disturbances of varying scale and frequency. A visual recurrence analysis is used to study the biomass history in each of the simulated systems. The recurrence analysis illustrates clearly the differences between the dynamic regimes of different systems and the subsequent effects of disturbances on these dynamic regimes. Recurrence analysis may prove to be a useful technique for the characterisation of data from ecosystem models and long-term ecological monitoring programs.